Capper’s Delight


Author:
Date: 05 December 2008
Category: Picks
Tagged with: , , , , , , ,

So, all of my picks this season have been based on my initial feeling after seeing the line. Most of the time, when I am creating the table, it is the first time I am looking at the lines that week…and I am trying to get the posts up before the Thursday Night game, so I don’t have the time to do any research.

Today I decided to try to throw together my own capping system to see how well I can do based on the #’s.

Here are the Week 14 plays according to my system:

JAX +6.5; CHI/JAX UNDER 40 (20-17 CHI) (RESULT: 23-10 CHI) [hit o/u]

MIN -9.5; MIN/DET UNDER 46.5 (27-15 MIN) (RESULT: 20-16 MIN) [hit o/u]

HOU +6; HOU/GB OVER 47 (25-24 HOU) (RESULT: 24-21 HOU) [hit spread]

CIN +13.5; CIN/IND UNDER 41.5 (22-12 IND) (RESULT: 35-3 IND) [hit o/u]

ATL +3; NO/ATL UNDER 51.5 (25-24 NO) (RESULT: 29-25 NO)

NYG -6.5; PHI/NYG OVER 43 (27-20 NYG) (RESULT: 20-14 PHI)

CLE +14; CLE/TEN OVER 37 (21-18 TEN) (RESULT: 28-9 TEN) [push o/u]

MIA/BUF (NO PLAY) (22-20 BUF) (RESULT 16-3 MIA)

KC +9.5; KC/DEN UNDER 48.5 (22-19 DEN) (RESULT: 24-17 DEN) [hit both]

SF +3.5; NYJ/SF UNDER 44.5 (23-20 NYJ) (RESULT: 24-14 SF) [hit both]

NE -6; NE/SEA OVER 43 (26-19 NE) (RESULT 24-21 NE) [hit o/u]

STL +14; AZ/STL UNDER 48.5 (24-17 AZ) (RESULT: 34-10 AZ) [hit o/u]

DAL +3; PIT/DAL UNDER 39 (19-18 PIT) (RESULT 20-13 PIT) [hit o/u]

BAL -5; BAL/WAS OVER 35 (23-13 BAL) (RESULT 24-10 BAL) [hit spread]

TB +3; TB/CAR OVER 38 (26-24 CAR) (RESULT 38-23 CAR) [hit o/u]

— — — — —

RED = SCARY (within 3 pts)

GREEN = LOOKS SOLID (cover by more than 7pts)

Use it, fade it, do what you will with it.

**It’s amazing how close most of these games should be when you look strictly at the #’s. Keep in mind that this system does not take into consideration: Home Field, Injuries, Trends, etc.

RESULTS AFTER FIRST RUN:

o/u : WIN 9, LOSE 4, PUSH 1 (11-4-1 including SD/OAK and MIA/BUF)

spread: WIN 4, LOSE 10 (4-12 including SD/OAK and MIA/BUF)

SOLID PLAYS HIT AT 80% RATE.

STRAIGHT UP PICKS WENT: 12-3 (13-3 including SD/OAK)

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